CNN anchor John King likened the current Republican primary campaign to a civil war and drew parallels between President Barack Obama’s re-election bid and former President George H.W. Bush’s failed bid in 1992 during his talk Nov. 9 in Ward 2.

“By every statistical, historical model, Barack Obama loses,” King said. “You cannot find a historical, statistical model that says he wins. But that doesn’t mean he’s not going to win.”

King, now covering his seventh consecutive U.S. presidential campaign, illustrated an electoral landscape full of nuances and unpredictability. He warned students not to trust the traditional methods people use to predict elections.

King also spoke candidly about the shortcomings of certain media networks, including his own, and urged students to get their news from outside of the main Washington, D.C. media outlets to broaden their horizons.

Reflecting on the Republican primaries

King outlined the framework of the Republican campaign as a tug a war for control of the heart and soul of the Republican Party.

“The easiest way to sum it up right now is Romney versus the rest,” King said. “On paper, Romney will be the Republican nominee.”

King said Romney is taking advantage of the “crowded field” to split the votes to his right.

“The last thing he wants is a one-on-one,” King said.

The only other candidate who is equal to Romney in electability on paper is Texas Governor Rick Perry, but he has to step up his campaign to remain competitive and be a leading contender, according to King.

“You don’t win Texas if you’re a dope,” King said.

King’s remarks proved to be true. Perry has been widely criticized and quickly discredited in the media for his bumbling gaffe in the Nov. 9 Republican debate when he couldn’t name the third federal agency he would cut.

King also addressed the peculiar aspects of primary elections, taking note that “lily-white” states like Iowa and New Hampshire play an influential role in weeding out candidates because they are the first two states to hold primaries.

And with the added eccentricity of independents now allowed to vote in the New Hampshire primaries, King hypothesized, “If the vote is really close, mischief could decide the race in New Hampshire.”

2012 election repeat of 1992 election?

King said Obama in the 2012 election reminds him of George H.W. Bush in the 1992 election, without going so far as to say the outcome will be the same.

Despite coming off of foreign policy victories, Bush faced a faltering economy and disenchanted voters, and Bush ultimately lost the race.

“George H.W. Bush was one of the most respected presidents in my lifetime,” King said. “And the American people said, ‘Thanks for trying. See you later.’ That could well happen to [Obama].”

King also laid out the central attack Republicans would launch at Obama: the promise of hope and change that never came.

The Republicans will emphasize high unemployment and home foreclosure rates and what seems to be the apex of gridlock in Washington when Obama promised post-partisanship as main arguments, according to King.

Obama faces other challenges as well. King said part of Obama’s appeal during his first presidential bid was that he was “new.” Now that Obama’s novelty has worn off, King predicts an uphill climb.

“He’s a used car now,” King said. “So it’s a tougher sell for him this time.”

Although he listed all the factors that would hurt Obama’s chances, King called Obama a “pretty damn good politician” and left the outcome of the presidential race wide open.

“Remember the arithmetic,” King said. “We’re all equal — one vote. So whoever organizes the best wins.”