With the Nevadan Republican presidential caucus four days away, party leaders and analysts say the widely fluctuating race for the party’s nomination could see Nevada become a crucial step in the process.
Although most polls and analysts point to former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney winning the state, uncertainty over candidates in the Republican race, as well as the tumultuous nature of Nevada politics, could bring more attention to both the state and Washoe County. Even though Nevada’s 28 Republican delegates make up a small percentage of the eventual pool (In 2008, the winner required more than 1,100 delegates to secure the nomination), the momentum of winning the state could prove crucial to candidates, U. Nevada, Reno political science professor Eric Herzik said.
“In raw numbers, it’s not as important as Florida,” Herzik said. “But in terms of the kind of surge and decline, I think Nevada has become more important than it was three weeks ago, when it looked like Romney was going to run the table. But Nevada’s just one stop on this march.”
Several candidates, including Ron Paul and Rick Santorum, are planning appearances in southern Nevada today and throughout the week. Secretary of the Washoe County Republican Party Phyllis Westrup said Romney, Newt Gingrich, Paul and possibly Santorum plan to visit the northern part of the state sometime this week, but details have not been finalized.
While the results of the Florida caucus, which happens today, would help clear some of the confusion from the race, Herzik said the path to nomination is still wide open.
“It’s pretty clear that there isn’t a single Republican who has just grabbed the heart of the party,” he said.
While all of the candidates are planning on visiting the state, the amount of funding may not be at the same level of larger states, such as South Carolina or Florida. Money spent via “SuperPACs,” or political action committees that can spend unlimited amounts of money as long as they don’t coordinate with candidates, has been the topic of scrutiny due to their perceived influence in a number of primary races. According to information compiled by ProPublica, only two SuperPACs have spent about $80,000 so far in the state, far below nearly all other primary states.
Despite the inconsistencies, students such as College Republican President Alex Chau are planning on using the excitement fostered by the beginning of an election season to get more students involved in the process.
“Here at the University of Nevada, there are a lot of unheard voices, especially in the conservative right, and it present an opportunity for college republicans to start rallying up votes,” Chau said.
Chau said he’s planning with members of the Young Democrats to hold a debate sometime in the upcoming weeks, and said his organization will begin registering voters in the near future.
While political analysts such as Anjeanette Damon of the Las Vegas Sun express concern over Nevada’s ability to pull off the caucus sans controversy, the early caucus date could prove to beneficial.
“In the long term, hopefully it cements our status as an important player,” Damon said.