Having heard the night before that Mitt Romney was going to announce his running mate Saturday morning in Norfolk, Virginia, I woke up very early to catch the latest punditry and find out who had been chosen. I quickly learned that Mitt Romney’s choice was Paul Ryan, the representative from the 1st District in Wisconsin.
I then strolled into my living room where my grandmother had been reading the morning paper. Knowing that I was on top of all of the political news, she immediately asked me a question that I believe best demonstrates the riskiness of Romney’s choice: “What is this about Romney’s ‘pick’ hurting an old lady in a wheelchair?”
First Impressions
And there you have it. It took only minutes following the news of Romney’s choice before she already had an opinion on him, and it wasn’t positive. Whether my grandmother really thought Representative Ryan had pushed a senior off a cliff is an interesting possibility that makes me laugh inside. But the real moral of this story is this: initial messaging by the campaigns will have a significant effect on how people view Romney’s VP.
Paul Ryan Who?
So let’s start with the premise that my grandmother is the typical senior citizen in the United States. She is a recipient of Social Security and Medicare. She doesn’t know much about Paul Ryan. And, unlike political junkies like me, she is not following the race for president all that well. She is far from being alone in this camp.
In fact, according to a CNN/ORC International poll conducted August 7-8, 54 percent of all Americans said that they didn’t know enough about Paul Ryan to form an opinion, as was the case with other expected VP choices. Therefore, Americans will learn everything that the need to know and then some about Paul Ryan–the good, the bad, and the ugly–from the media and from ads that will be run by campaigns and Super PACs. That is not necessarily welcome news for Ryan or the Romney Campaign. Here is why.
Referendum on the President to Referendum on Ryan Budget
When one thinks of Representative Ryan, what most likely comes to mind is the Ryan budget. Americans may remember this from Democratic political ads in 2010, like the one where a Ryan look-alike pushes an old lady in a wheelchair off a cliff. The potential problem for Romney’s campaign going forward is that the Ryan Plan, as it has been dubbed, touches the “third rail” of American politics, Medicare and Social Security.
Just look at this excerpt from an email sent out to supporters by Jim Messina, the Obama Campaign Manager, soon after the Ryan announcement. He said, “Congressman Paul Ryan is best known as the author of a budget so radical The New York Times called it ‘the most extreme budget plan passed by a House of Congress in modern times.’”
So even though Ryan and his conservative counterparts marvel at the boldness of the Ryan Plan, descriptions of changes in Medicare and Social Security as “radical” and “extreme” are hardly the messages that the Romney Campaign wants seniors to hear. And the reason is simple. These programs are lifelines for many seniors, a way of life in retirement. After all, the median senior citizen doesn’t make all that much money. The median income for women 65 and over was less than $15,000 in 2008. The median income for men of the same age bracket was only about $25,500.
Hence, Romney may have may have changed this election from a referendum on President Obama to a referendum on the Ryan Plan. Over the next few weeks, Republicans will have to make the senior citizens more comfortable with Paul Ryan and ensure them that their benefits are safe. Threaten their benefits, and potentially pay the political price from one of the largest voting blocs in American elections.
And Then There Is Medicaid
It is obvious that the Ryan Plan will take center stage for few other reasons than the fact that it proposes great changes to Medicare and Social Security. But there may be a third, slightly less significant issue with his budget. The Ryan Plan also proposes great reductions in Medicaid.
The Ryan Plan took one of its greatest hits this April when the US Conference of Catholic Bishops took aim at the plan because of its impact on the poor. After Paul Ryan claimed that Catholic social teaching inspired his budget, Catholic bishops sent a furry of letters to the congressman’s office and stated that the Ryan Plan “fails to meet these moral criteria.”
And so the war begins. You can now tack on a threat to the poorest Americans, many of whom will become new recipients of Medicaid under Obamacare, to the supposed threat on seniors and the middle class. Did I mention that messaging is everything?
Messaging Means Everything
The Romney Campaign had a great day Saturday following the announcement, and his bold choice will undoubtedly energize the Republican base heading into the convention and the election in November. However, the pundits aren’t calling this choice risky for nothing. Paul Ryan’s presence on the ticket definitely has its positives, but it could hurt Romney in the long run if cuts to Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security become the lead discussion heading into November.
Hence the conclusion, it all comes down to messaging. Democrats will soon revive the political attacks of the 2010 election cycle, and they could be damaging if they win the hearts of minds of seniors across America. Are Romney and Ryan capable of rebutting such attacks? We shall know in November.