The ushering in of spring means a new baseball season: With baseball comes statistics, and with statistics comes fantasy. Fantasy baseball was the original fantasy sport. A fantasy head can become entrenched in the deep world of fantasy baseball, especially considering that it is one of the only sports with cut-and-dry statistics for essentially every play. That said, if you don’t know who Yoenis Cespesdes is, then this article may not be for you. But if you can commit yourself to scouring over information about National League second basemen, I just may be able to help you gets a few wins this fantasy baseball season.
You may have already done your fantasy baseball draft, but if you haven’t, don’t draft pitchers early. Yes, pitching statistics are weighted just as heavily as hitting statistics, but the predictability of a pitcher simply isn’t worth the risk in the early rounds. Don’t get me wrong, I love Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw this year, but you won’t find them on my fantasy squads. Just last year Tim Linecum was drafted in the third round in the majority of fantasy drafts. He finished ranked 820 overall with a 10-15 record and 5.18 earned run average. Yikes.
In ESPN’s Tristan Cockcroft’s preseason ranks of 2012, only 10 of the predicted players to finish in the top 25 actually did. You can get great value pitchers in rounds as late as the seventh through the tenth, such as top 25 pitchers like White Sox starter Chris Sale, Atlanta pitcher Kris Medlen and Cy Young Award winner R.A. Dickey. Be patient and load up your lineup.
When all is said and done your fantasy lineup should have a nice balance of rock-solid steady performers and talented upside picks. Young prospects can emerge on a team any time there is a deep free-agent pool in the baseball league. Oftentimes these prospects can change the course of a year for a team. The key is knowing about them before your buddies.
Everyone is familiar with the Washington Nationals superstar prospect Bryce Harper. It’s hard to continue calling Harper a prospect, after posting a .270-.340-.477 last year with 22 dingers, 59 runs batted in, 98 runs and 18 stolen bases, but at only 20 years old, he hasn’t even scratched the surface. The first overall prospect in 2010 and the “chosen one” of the diamond has been coming off the board late in the third rounds of drafts. Now that’s too late for young Mr. Harper. I see this kid playing at an MVP-level for the next 14 years, starting with the 2013 season. The strikeouts will go down and the on-base percentage will go up, meaning this guy is worthy of a second-round pick.
I think the Atlanta Braves may have a a star in waiting with shortstop Andrelton Simmons, who is set to be the lead off man for a loaded Braves squad. It will be hard for the young shortstop lose his spot in the lineup, especially considering his exceptional fielding skills. In 49 games last year, Simmons batted .289 with three home runs, 19 RBIs and struck out only 21 times. In the World Baseball Classic this spring, Simmons was on fire, hitting .333 with two home runs and 10 runs scored. He continued his hot play when he returned to the Braves for his first spring training game, going three-for-four with two home runs and a double.
Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Domin Brown has been a top 100 prospect since he was 20 years old, but he hasn’t played like one. Even though he has played for three separate stints in the majors, Brown has yet to eclipse .245 from the plate. Further, he has struggled to find the power stroke he showed in the minors that made scouts salivate over his potential. Now 24, the talk is over for Brown. Thankfully, new hitting coach Wally Joyner has apparently changed Brown’s hand placement, and it has done wonders for the left fielder, rekindling the talent that made him such a hot commodity. I’m buying into the hype for one last season and the low asking price of the 15th to the 17th round.
After having fallen off the radar due to disappointing play during his first few seasons, Kansas City Royals outfielder Alex Gordon has quietly stroked 14 home runs last season with 72 RBIs and sported a .294 average. He will be consistent again this year at a low price.
Chicago Cubs shortstop Starlin Castro, the Kyrie Irving of baseball, will be entering his fourth season in the majors. At 22 years old, Castro has remarkably never hit lower than .283 and his stolen bases have climbed steadily, up to 25 last year. Castro showed power in the minors and this may be the year that it becomes part of his game, making him a potential top 10 player. Yahoo! ranks him at 40th overall, but this is ludicrous with his potential.
The key to fantasy baseball is to always be one step ahead of your opponents. Always read prospects lists and minor league stats to see when the next Mike Trout may be making his debut, then pounce on the opportunity. Good Luck.