In the 11 seasons the Oregon men’s basketball program has reached the NCAA Tournament, the team from Eugene has lost in the first round six times. They won the inaugural championship in 1939 and thrice made it to the Elite Eight before falling. That leaves this year up in the air.

In 1960, when the bracket field was only 25, the Ducks won two games and dropped the third, but that third game was an Elite Eight matchup. In 2002, a second-seeded Oregon won its first three games before falling to powerhouse Kansas in the Midwest regional (same region as this year). In 2007 the Ducks made another run to the Elite Eight (again in the Midwest regional), as a three-seed, but were defeated by the eventual tournament champion Florida Gators.

If history repeats itself, the Ducks have good backing at least for the upcoming round in the Midwest regional, having never lost a Sweet 16 game and are 2-0 in the Midwest regional after having played two games.

The Ducks will play the Louisville in Friday’s Sweet 16 matchup, and the Cardinals won a share of the regular season Big East title and earned the Big East tournament championship crown as well. Of the 19 different teams Oregon has faced in NCAA Tournament play, the Ducks have only ever encountered one Big East team, Seton Hall, to which they lost by one in overtime in the first round of the 2000 tourney. 

Since the tournament field expanded to 64 or more teams beginning in 1985, Oregon has played 14 games. Against teams seeded lower than them, the Ducks are 6-3. Against teams seeded higher than them, that record is a lowly 2-3, with both those wins being in the past week. In facing the overall one-seed Louisville on Friday, history of season’s past doesn’t look favorable for UO, but the very, very recent history points to a potential upset.