If you’re a film buff, the biggest competitive season of the year is about to commence. It’s not taking place on a football field, but rather on a Hollywood stage. The Academy Awards are almost among us, where a group of the industry elite come together to declare a handful of films and performances supreme.

It all starts on January 10 with the announcement of the year’s nominees. Like any upcoming event in Hollywood, speculation is as big a part of the proceedings as the ceremony itself. So without further ado, here’s my predictions for the year’s big six categories – complete with short write-ups, so you can look informed to your film major friends.

Best Supporting Actor

J.K Simmons (Whiplash) – It may seem early, but you can effectively consider J.K Simmons a lock for not just a nomination, but the trophy itself. His performance in Whiplash has been the film’s most touted element since release.

Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher) – The wrestling drama features a trio of transformative performances, but Ruffalo’s is easily the most impressive.

Edward Norton (Birdman) – This portrayal of a self-obsessed stage actor who saves (and nearly destroys) a Broadway show is almost a commentary on Norton’s own professional career.

Ethan Hawke (Boyhood) – Hawke gives Boyhood its narrative throughline, as the father figure that pops in and out from Mason’s life. The weight of the film’s core arc lies squarely on his shoulders, and he makes it work.

Robert Duvall (The Judge) – The fifth spot in this category is much harder to call, but considering Duvall’s pair of nominations for the SAG Award and Golden Globe in this category – he’s a safe pick.

Won’t Be Acknowledged, But Deserves A Shoutout

Dave Bautista (Guardians of the Galaxy) – Perhaps “best” isn’t the correct term, but I can’t think of a more pleasant surprise this year than Dave Bautista (in his first major acting role) nailing the deadpan humor of Drax in Guardians of the Galaxy.

Best Supporting Actress

Patricia Arquette (Boyhood) – Much like Simmons, you can safely expect Arquette to get not just a nomination, but the statue in this field. Over 12 years, she displays a dazzling palette of emotion and experience – as a mother who puts her children before even herself.

Emma Stone (Birdman) – Stone has been a bright young light in mainstream films for a few years now, but she’s found a truly great role in Birdman as a recovering addict. Few nominations are earned with a single scene, but her monologue on modern fame is one for the ages.

Laura Dern (Wild) – Dern doesn’t see a lot of screentime in this Pacific Northwest drama, but she gives possibly the most memorable performance in the entire film.

Rene Russo (Nightcrawler) – While Jake Gyllenhaal has been gathering most of the attention for this buzzy noir, Russo cannot be overlooked. She acts as both accomplice and victim to the moral challenges she’s presented with and surfaces that conflict brilliantly.

Meryl Streep (Into The Woods) – At this point, if you see Streep in ANY major motion picture that releases between September and January, she’s at least in consideration for an Oscar.

Won’t Get Acknowledged, But Deserves Recognition

Carrie Coon (Gone Girl) – No actress this year has had a better or worse year than Carrie Coon. She delivered phenomenal performances in both this Fincher epic and the HBO drama The Leftovers and will almost certainly see no awards for either. Her role in Gone Girl is subtle and perfect – the backboard of rationality to a twisting path of media chaos.

Best Director

Richard Linklater (Boyhood) – With a passion project that took 12 years to complete, all pieced together with a strong thread of narrative cohesion – Linklater makes a strong case for a win in this category. But up against other stunning accomplishments, it may not come to fruition.

Alejandro Iñárritu (Birdman) – An entire feature done without a single visible cut isn’t a new trick in the world of film, but Iñárritu makes it feel downright effortless. His style turns Birdman into a living dream, a stream of consciousness that drifts between reality and fantasy.

Ava DuVernay (Selma) – The Academy often loves to make a statement, which is what makes Ava DuVernay’s Selma the biggest dark horse in this year’s race. She’d be the first African-American woman to ever be nominated in the category, and it’d give further promotion to an excellent biopic that feels remarkably relevant in our time.

Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher) – It’s hard to make neorealism thrilling, but Miller proves a master of form in Foxcatcher. It’s a stark, cold film that refuses to exaggerate the simple horror of a true crime story.

Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel) – The Academy finally showed some appreciation for Anderson’s trademark style with nominations for Moonrise Kingdom, and this star-packed crowd pleaser is coming into the race with far more buzz than that film ever had.

Won’t Be Acknowledged, But Deserves Recognition

Gareth Edwards (Godzilla) – No blockbuster in the past decade has come off as more of an artistic statement then Edwards’ take on the classic Kaiju. It’s a film with incredible pace, a slow-burning adventure that culminates in an orchestra of destruction. In a perfect world, it’d at least be considered in the cinematography scene. Hopefully, it can at least earn some praise for visual effects.