Don’t anticipate a tight contest when the Oregon Ducks (1-1) take on the Georgia State Panthers (1-1) in Autzen Stadium at 11 a.m. on Saturday. Georgia State has compiled a 2-24 record since it hired head coach Trent Miles to take over the ailing program following a one-win 2012 season. The program itself is only five years old, but the Panthers have never finished with a winning record. They beat New Mexico State 34-32 last weekend, their first-ever victory over an FBS team or as a member of the Sun Belt conference.
The Ducks have never played the Panthers, but they shared a common opponent in 2014: Washington. The Huskies lost 45-20 to Oregon but defeated Georgia State 45-14.
Here’s how the teams stack up for Saturday:
Oregon offense vs. Georgia State defense
Look for Oregon to test the Georgia State defensive backs with its aerial attack during the game’s early stages. New Mexico State quarterback Tyler Rogers shredded the Panthers’ secondary last week, completing 33 of 55 passes for 445 yards, three touchdowns and an interception. Tyrian Taylor, Rogers’s top target, torched Georgia State with 10 receptions for 206 yards and two touchdowns. So, expect Oregon wide receivers Bralon Addison and Charles Nelson to challenge the Georgia State secondary through the air with speed and crisp route running. The game will also serve as an opportunity for quarterback Vernon Adams Jr. to establish a comfortable pocket presence and build rapport with Oregon’s receivers.
As for the Ducks’ ground attack, Georgia State faces a formidable test. The Panthers held New Mexico State to 3.7 yards per rushing attempt and Charlotte to 3.6 in their season opener. They’ve never defended a rushing attack like Oregon’s, though. The Ducks have rushed on 61 percent of their offensive snaps in 2015, and running back Royce Freeman has amassed four touchdowns and averaged six yards per carry. He ran for 92 yards and a touchdown on 24 carries against Michigan State Spartans last week. Freeman’s performance should only improve from here on out.
Georgia State offense vs. Oregon defense
The Panthers have rushed on 46 percent of their offensive plays in 2015, compared to 47 percent in 2014 and 46 percent in 2013. The Panthers are unlikely to run the ball down the Ducks’ throats. Chances are they they will be playing from behind for much or all of the game, so Georgia State will press on without running back Taz Bateman, who suffered an arm injury against New Mexico State. Bateman rushed 14 times for 97 yards—a 6.9-yard average—this season. Georgia State’s six other running backs have rushed 58 times for 206 yards—a 3.6-yard average. Kyler Neal will handle the bulk of the rushing duties against Oregon. The 5-foot-11, 218-pound sophomore from Dallas rushed 17 times for a respectable 79 yards and two touchdowns against New Mexico State. He’ll go up against an Oregon front seven that Michigan State bulldozed for 197 yards, two touchdowns and a 5.3 yards-per-carry average last week.
The Panthers gained a school record 582 yards on offense in their win over New Mexico State. Quarterback Nick Arbuckle passed for 372 yards and two touchdowns, both of which went to 5-foot-9, 170-pound freshman wide receiver Penny Hart, who finished with 11 catches and 150 yards. Donovan Harden, Georgia State’s top receiver in 2014, is unlikely to play against Oregon due to a foot injury he suffered during preseason. Nevertheless, don’t be surprised if Arbuckle, who ranks ninth nationally with 335.5 passing yards per game, throws 50 or more pass attempts against Oregon.