Oregon baseball manager George Horton’s teams have embraced “small ball” throughout his long and prosperous coaching career. But in his 19th season as head coach, he and his coaching staff made the decision to move away from that strategy.
“It’s an intentional thing — we’re not trying to sacrifice as much,” Horton said.
Oregon’s offense, however, has struggled mightily. The team batting average (.217) and on-base percentage (.322) are the lowest in the conference and slugging percentage (.324) is second-lowest. All three are the lowest they’ve been in any season under Horton. The Ducks (14-12, 4-5) have scored the third-fewest runs per game (4.77) and currently sit in eighth place in the Pac-12 standings.
Small ball is an offensive approach that emphasizes “manufacturing runs” — moving runners into scoring position by means of sacrifice bunts and stolen bases. Its counterpart, the “take-and-rake” approach, underscores scoring runs in bunches by means of walks and extra base hits.
During Horton’s tenure, no Pac-12 team has played more small ball than Oregon. The Ducks’ “small ball index” — sacrifice bunts plus stolen base attempts per game — of 2.91 is the highest in the conference from 2009 to the present.
Thus far in 2016, the Ducks’ small ball index of 1.92 is the lowest it has been since 2009 (1.95), Horton’s first season at Oregon. The Ducks have averaged far more sacrifice bunts per game (1.27) than any team in the Pac-12 during that span, but the fourth-fewest (0.73) in 2016.
Prior to the start of the season, the Ducks were excited to move away from the strategy.
“That just means the coaches are going to trust us a little bit more,” Phil Craig-St. Louis told reporters at the beginning of the year. “With the pitching we have, I think we’ll be able to win some games just by swinging and not go back to the bunting that has been here for so many years.”
The change in approach is not a byproduct of his current players’ skill sets, which Horton said are not much different from those of past players. Rather, he and his coaching staff wanted to change the status quo.
“We don’t want to lead the nation in sacrifice bunts anymore,” he said.
Horton acknowledged Oregon’s shift away from small ball will inevitably lead to more double play balls because runners will advance to second less frequently due to fewer bunts and steals. He hopes it will lead to more multi-run innings, which he said are “momentum-breakers” for opponents.
“It’s not about hitting home runs, but it’s just lack of giving up outs as sacrifices. We’ll still base hit, bunt to move guys and all that. We’re trying that style to see if we can get the continuity to score more runs consistently.”
Conventional knowledge says small ball will lead to more consistent scoring than the take-and-rake approach. A 2005 analysis of Major League Baseball teams by Baseball Prospectus, however, determined “hitting approach has no effect on the consistency of runs scored.”
A regression analysis indicates that the Ducks tend to win more of their games in seasons when their small ball index is higher. If they are committed to moving away from small ball, they may need to recruit players who more closely fit the take-and-rake mould.
Oregon baseball’s small ball index each season has some correlation with its win percentage. (Kenny Jacoby/Emerald)
Oregon plays Portland Wednesday, then hosts a three-game series against USC this weekend. The Ducks hope their offensive outburst in Sunday’s series-clinching win over Pac-12 leader Cal serves as a “turning point” for the season.
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