Running a dark horse campaign in Texas is one thing. A presidential bid is another. Could Beto O’Rourke be a serious contender in 2020? Put aside his recent comments denying that he had any interest in running, and ask yourself if he could actually win.
Being the dream candidate of young progressives and being a plausible choice are two very different things. Firstly, other Democratic presidential hopefuls are already gearing up for a grueling primary season: Cory Booker has made inquiries about campaign staff in early primary states, Kamala Harris has campaigned for midterm candidates in Iowa, and even longshot mayor of Los Angeles, Eric Garcetti, has already paid visits to New Hampshire.
Beto is late to the game in more ways than one — he doesn’t have the experience. The highest office he’s ever held is in the House of Representatives. The only sitting Representative to be elected president was James Garfield in 1880, and Beto gave up his seat to run for the Senate. Prior to President Trump, the last president not to have previously served as Vice President, Senator, or Governor was Eisenhower (who was a General).
The discussion seems like it should end there, but it doesn’t. Beto O’Rourke is quite possibly the Cinderella Man of Democratic campaigning — he’s proved to be the master of the grassroots movement. Despite declining super PAC and special interest money, he was able to raise $70 million dollars — almost twice the amount Cruz raised — on over 800,000 individual donations.
Presidential campaigns require a war chest of donations, and while Beto may not have the Wall Street backers of Cory Booker or the California liberal elites of Kamala Harris, if he ran in 2020, he could potentially sustain a serious presidential bid through grassroots activism and small donors deep into the primary season. Moreover, Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama both hailed from non-deep-blue states: Arkansas and Illinois, respectively.
As for name recognition, Beto could face a serious challenge because he hasn’t been a high-ranking official before. However, he garnered a large social media following and enormous national and primetime attention during his 2018 Senate bid. Moreover, his campaign strategy to visit all 254 counties in Texas would translate well to the first caucuses in Iowa, where visiting every county in the state proved successful for John Edwards in 2004, Rick Santorum in 2012, and Ted Cruz in 2016. A primary victory in Iowa could give Beto the viability, momentum, and national attention he would need to make it to the White House.
What gives Beto an edge, though, is his mass appeal. Even as a progressive Democrat, he finished within 3 percentage points of Ted Cruz in Texas, a state where Republicans have a 17 percentage point registered voter advantage over Democrats. He energized progressive and minority voters while also appealing to centrists and independents, a deftness that would prove vital in swing states, particularly in the Rust Belt states of Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
Even if Beto 2020 doesn’t happen, the story is bigger than him. Americans are done with the same old candidates, those who seem to orbit American life rather than live it. Voters want a candidate they can reach out and touch. Voters want a candidate they feel actually cares about them on a personal level, not just as another ballot in their column.
And while status quo candidates — Booker and Harris alike — are busy looking to the White house, local candidates — like Beto — have been looking to (and listening to) their constituents.
Beto loves El Paso. You can hear it when he speaks, you can see it when he visits, you can feel it when he . He makes all of our towns feel like El Paso. Former Speaker of the House, Tip O’Neil, coined the phrase “All politics is local,” but in a fractured and increasingly abstracted political system, the idea of “localness” has been lost. Voters feel more disconnected from their representatives than ever before. Congress — white, male, and wealthy — does not adequately represent the real America. Voters want to support a candidate they feel is one of their own, someone who understands them, who can relate to their struggles, who is human. When Representative-elect Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez turned to Twitter recently to vent about her struggles to find an affordable apartment in Washington, D.C., millions of Americans were able to relate to her and the lack of affordable housing. Similarly, when Beto posts pictures and videos on social media of him spending time with his family or running in marathons through El Paso, voters and constituents no longer see him simply as a politician but as a human being. This human-like “localness” wins your trust, wins your confidence, and it just might win your vote.
If the Democrats hope to take back the White House in two years, the importance of connecting on a local level is vital. It energizes supporters and wins voters who are more concerned about putting food on their table and maintaining a roof over their head than intricate policy positions that have little to no effect on their lives. This was the fatal flaw of Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign: despite her complex understanding of the issues, voters couldn’t relate to her. Meanwhile, voters saw a rawness to Trump in his off-the-cuff speeches and remarks. Trump’s faults, vices, and infidelities made him appear human, albeit often immoral as well. In contrast to Clinton and Trump, Beto exudes a positive localness — a realness. He is among us, one of us: he is a husband, father, friend, soccer aficionado, etc. Beto is someone we can all relate to in some form. He is a leader that makes us feel like he represents us, not as a superior but as an equal.
Whoever runs in 2020, let them be local.
(Bet) on Beto was originally published in The Yale Herald on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.