The era of the four-team College Football Playoff is behind us. The debates on which teams are the most deserving of an ever-elusive slot will be minimized as the new CFP format makes its debut.
A dozen teams from across the country will now have the chance to vie for a National Championship. Instead of three total playoff games, college football fans will have 11 games over four rounds to glue them to their televisions.
The Format
The 12-team format will heavily reward conference champions while also including (at least) one Group of 5 (G5) team. Five of the 12 spots will be reserved for the five highest-ranked conference champions. This will — almost certainly — consist of the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC), Southeastern Conference (SEC), Big Ten and Big 12 champions, as well as the highest-ranked winner from a G5 conference. The final seven spots will be awarded to the next seven highest-ranked teams in the country, regardless of conference.
A team’s ranking, however, doesn’t necessarily determine its seeding. The top four highest-ranked conference champions will receive a first-round bye. Seeds 5-12 will be determined by the highest-ranked teams left in the field.
This means a couple things. First, University of Notre Dame is independent, so it can’t be a conference champion, so it can’t earn a bye. Second, even if a non-conference champion is ranked higher than a conference champion, it cannot receive a bye. So, Oregon could be the Big Ten runner-up and ranked No. 3 nationally, but would not be eligible for a first round bye.
Now, here’s where things get fun. The first round of the College Football Playoff will be played at the campus of the higher-ranked school on either Dec. 20 or 21. The No. 5 seed will host the No. 12, the No. 6 will host the No. 11, the No. 7 will host the No. 10 and the No. 8 will host the No. 9.
Imagine a playoff game in December at Autzen Stadium. Chills.
The quarterfinal round will consist of the winners of the on-campus games against the four conference champions that received byes.
It’s important to note that teams will not be reseeded, and the winner of the 5-12 seed game will play the No. 4 seed, the 9-8 seed winner will play the No. 1, the 10-7 winner will play the No. 2 seed and the 6-11 winner will get the No. 3.
The quarterfinal round will not be held on campus, but in four of the six standard “New Year’s Six” games. Across Dec. 31 and Jan. 1, the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl, Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl, Rose Bowl Game and Allstate Sugar Bowl will host playoff contests.
Only then do we reach the four-team format that’s been standard for the past decade. The Capital One Orange Bowl and Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic will host semifinal games on Jan. 9-10, and the National Championship Game will take place in Atlanta on Jan. 20 of next year.
It’ll be a grind for any team that makes the playoff, with a possible four postseason games required to hoist the National Championship Trophy.
The Projections
As mentioned, the top four conference champions will receive byes. FanDuel Sportsbook projects Georgia (+170), Florida State (+290), Ohio State (+150) and Utah (+280) to win the SEC, ACC, Big Ten and Big 12 respectively.
The G5 teams with the best National Championship odds are Liberty University, Boise State University and The University of Memphis, each at +50000. For argument’s sake, let’s assume Liberty claims that fifth conference champion slot.
The next seven teams with the highest championship odds are Oregon (+650), Texas (+850), Alabama (+1400), Ole Miss (+1400), Notre Dame (+1800), LSU (+1800) and Penn State (+2000).
Should this be the field, only the Big Ten and SEC would send multiple teams to the biggest stage. However, throughout the regular season, these teams will surely beat up on each other. It would be surprising to not see multiple teams from each Power 4 Conference (ACC, SEC, Big Ten and Big 12) in the final CFP bracket.
What it Means for Oregon:
The Ducks’ easiest path is simple: win the Big Ten. Oregon has the second-best odds to do so at +220. But should the Ducks stumble, they can surely afford to lose one game and make the CFP. It’ll get hairy if Oregon loses a trap game and ends the season with two losses (unless one comes in the Big Ten Championship).
The bottom line is that the hope of seeing the Ducks in the playoffs is absolutely realistic. Barring a season that severely differs from expectations, it could even become reality.