Traditionally, the golf season’s second major is the toughest of the four to win on any given year. While the Masters is known for the absolute mayhem and the pressure packed finishes Augusta’s back nine holes stage annually. The Open Championship never lacks for unpredictable weather. The U.S.Open hangs its head high on its distinction of being golf’s toughest test.
Photo courtesy of Eileen Blass — USA Today
However, torrential rains have hit Pennsylvania this week, softening up the greens considerably and potentially setting up a rare sight: an uncharacteristically low score holding the top spot of the Merion leader board on Sunday afternoon. As 2012 Open Championship winner Ernie Els put it this week, “You’re not going to see a firm U.S. Open this year, I’m sorry…if you’re on your game, you’re going to have a lot of birdie putts.”
While the challenge may not be nearly as stiff this time around as in years past,it surely will not lack star-power and storylines. Who will come out on top of a star studded field as dense as the second cut at the old 6,996 yard course? Let’s take a look at all of the serious contenders, followed by the pretenders, to win the second major of the year this weekend.
The Favorites
Tiger Woods: This is hard to believe, but this year’s championship marks the 5 year anniversary of Woods’ stunning playoff victory (on one leg!) over Rocco Mediate at Torrey Pine’s in the 2008 U.S. Open. Of course, you know the story since then: Woods went through a major identity and golf crisis in 2009, took a break from the game, and has only recently regained his true form as the world’s top golfer. Despite handing in his worst 9-hole scorecard of his illustrious career at the Memorial a couple of weeks ago, Woods has been absolutely torching the PGA Tour this year. He has an astonishing 4 wins on the Tour so far in merely 8 events played, and is fresh off a big win at The Players Championship in May. While Woods has struggled with his driver all year long, he chose to can it in favor of his more accurate 3-wood at the TPC, and it paid huge dividends: he kept out of the heavy stuff, and cruised to victory at 13 under. If Woods does the same at Merion, he will be awfully difficult to beat, especially with the way he has been putting and striking the ball all year long. He comes in as the heavy favorite to capture his 15th major title, and with good reason.
Rory McIlroy: The world’s clear cut #2 player hasn’t had quite the start to the season many imagined he would, coming off of his absolutely dominate 8-stroke victory in the PGA Championship at the end of last season. The young star from Northern Ireland has zero wins and ranks a paltry 32nd on the Tour Money List this year. Majors seem to bring out the best in Rory though, as he has 2 major titles despite only being 24. If there ever was a time for McIlroy to shake off his rocky start to the year, it’s this weekend. He’s at his best in big moments when he is playing aggressively and attacking the golf course, and the slow conditions at Merion could launch him to the top of the leaderboard, much like how he dominated a soft Congressional course in 2011. Don’t sleep on Rory.
Adam Scott: Rounding out the top competitors at Merion is Australia’s Adam Scott, who, not coincidentally, is paired with Woods and McIlroy for the first two rounds of the championship. The 32 year old finally shed his “one of the best players to never win a major” label earlier this year at the Masters, winning in dramatic fashion in a playoff over Angel Cabrera. He’s got to feel good getting that monkey off his back, and the world’s third ranked player is seeking to become the first player to win back to back majors since Padraig Harrington in 2007. The smooth swinging Aussie has a good of a shot as anyone to win this weekend, so long as his putter stays hot. As if watching the top three golfers in the world playing in the same grouping on Thursday and Friday wasn’t exciting enough, Scott’s caddie, Stevie Williams, will be “reunited” with his old employer, Woods, after Woods abruptly ended their partnership that produced 14 major titles in 2011. An interesting subplot, to say the least.
The “Other” Guys
Matt Kuchar: The always consistent 34 year old American is my first other big name candidate not only because he is playing very well recently, being only the second player to win multiple tournaments on tour this year (yes, the other is Woods), but because he seems ripe to finally break out and win a major tournament. Kuchar is the fourth ranked player in the world, and his consistency will certainly pay off in a major tournament before too long. Don’t be surprised if he comes out on top at Merion.
Graeme McDowell: It’s almost a stretch to call the other U.S. Open champion from Northern Ireland simply one of the “other” guys, but it would certainly be more surprising to most people if he matched his younger counterpart McIlroy in major titles. McDowell already has one win on Tour this year, and he also finished second in last year’s U.S. Open. It’s not an understatement to say the U.S. Open brings out the best in the 33 year old, and he will be looking to avoid missing his fourth cut of the season so far. Despite missing that many cuts, he also has one win and 3 other top-10 finishes this year, so look out.
Justin Rose: Rose hasn’t had quite the season Kuchar or McDowell has, but he’s firmly in the notorious, talented group of non-major winners Adam Scott recently departed. Rose has come close to victory before in every single major, having at least one Top-5 finish in each of the four big ones. Rose finished tied for third at last year’s PGA, and despite being only 26th on the Tour Money List at the moment, the world’s fifth ranked player is just waiting to have his major breakthrough, and this weekend could be his time.
Darkhorses
Louis Oosthuizen, Dustin Johnson, Hunter Mahan, Jason Day: All four of these guys have been in the major spotlight before, with only Oosthuizen capturing a title before (The Open Championship in 2010). All four guys have big boom or bust potential, yet would surprise nobody if they were to emerge victorious.
Pretenders
Sergio Garcia, Lee Westwood, Luke Donald: Donald and Westwood have both had miserable campaigns on tour thus far, and while they will likely win a major title eventually, this is not their week. I don’t see them ending their career long major droughts just yet. Garcia, on the other hand, has made somewhat of a career revival this season with 4 Top-10 finishes, but his total collapse at the TPC last month will haunt him for some time. Not to mention his public feud with Woods over the past month regarding course etiquette at the TPC and his racist remarks towards the world’s best golfer have put him under heavy scrutiny, and Garcia has never shown us that he is one to handle pressure well, to put it nicely.
Prediction
While Woods is certainly the heavy favorite, I say the 14 time major winner comes up just short this time around, and the elusive number 15 eludes him for a few more months. He’s got a great chance to win one of the remaining 3 majors (I think he takes The Open), but this weekend belongs to Matt Kuchar. He’s fresh off a solid win at the Memorial, and his game sets up nicely for the conditions at Merion this weekend. Look for strong finishes from Woods, Scott, McDowell and Day, a missed cut from Garcia, and for someone else to leave the increasingly shrinking “best player to never win a major” clubhouse.