You know your football program is in a good place when a missed kick means you have to settle for a Rose Bowl appearance instead of a second berth at the national championship game. But the 2012 game against Stanford wasn’t the first time — nor will it be the last — that a margin of three points or fewer decided an entire football game. Over the last eight seasons, there have been at least 10 games, the Nov. 17, 2012 matchup against Stanford included, that could have been swayed by a field goal.
The stats below beg the question: What’s happening in November that causes so many close games? Half of the games that were decided by three points or fewer in the last eight years happened between Nov. 12 and Nov. 24. Is it the colder temperatures? The constant rain in Eugene? Or the fact that Thanksgiving is just around the corner?
In 2011, USC also beat Oregon at Autzen by a three-point margin, robbing the Ducks of a perfect Pac-12 season. That was the second time the Ducks had to settle for a Rose Bowl appearance, beating out the Wisconsin Badgers 45-38 in Pasadena a month and a half later. A November matchup against Cal (15-13) in 2010 could have also turned out differently if the opposing team had scored field goal.
Two contests in 2009, a pre-season game against Purdue at Autzen on Sept. 12 (38-36) and Nov. 21 at Arizona (44-41) could have fostered different results had it not been for a field goal. In the case of the game against the Wildcats, it was a successful three-pointer by Arizona in double overtime that Oregon quarterback Jeremiah Masoli countered with a successful touchdown attempt that earned the Ducks a win.
During a pre-season win in 2006 against Oklahoma (34-33), the Ducks may have been repaying the Sooners for the Holiday Bowl loss from the previous season that ended in a 14-17 loss for Oregon. Later that year, the Ducks lost to Oregon State 28-30 in the first of two consecutive Civil War losses Oregon would suffer before winning four contests in a row.
Before falling to Oklahoma at the end of the 2005 season, the Ducks defeated Fresno State 37-34 at Autzen in the pre-season and later lost to the Cougars 34-31 at Washington State on Nov. 12, proving again just how important a fine-tuned special teams section is.