The nominees: Robert Duvall in Judge, Mark Ruffalo in Foxcatcher, Ethan Hawke in Boyhood, Edward Norton in Birdman, and J.K. Simmons in Whiplash. It’s easy to confuse them, because they’re all middle aged white guys. But we think the standout white guy is Edward Norton. His performance as actor Mike Shiner was both powerful and hilarious. Plus, we’ve never seen his hair in that style before. The AMPAS will most likely pick Ethan Hawke for Best Actor in a Supporting Role. But we think it’s pretty easy to create a character arc when you are actually aging! To his credit, he does play the part well enough to capture a true development over time; it’s no Benjamin Button-style teleportation through time. So yeah, Ed should win, but Ethan will.