The Four Factors:
• Effective field goal percentage (eFG): Regular field goal percentage with additional weight given to three-pointers
• Turnover rate (TOV): Measurement of ball security
• Rebounding percentage (Reb): Percentage of the possible rebounds an offense or defense collects
• Free throw rate (FTR): Rate at which a team gets to the foul line, or fouls the opposing team
Oregon men’s basketball gets its turn in the Pac-12 Tournament Thursday against No. 10 seed Colorado at the MGM Grand Hotel & Casino in Las Vegas, Nevada.
The Ducks had a first round bye. The Buffaloes are coming off a hard-fought 78-71 win over No. 7 seed Oregon State on Wednesday night.
The Buff’s 78 points were the most points any team has scored against Oregon State all year long, so it’s safe to say that Colorado has figured something out on offense.
That wasn’t the case when Oregon first faced Colorado at Matthew Knight Arena in February. The Ducks won 73-60 on 23 points from Joseph Young, but Askia Booker was held to 5-17 shooting and Josh Scott scored just 10 points, all while the Buffs committed 16 turnovers.
This time around, Josh Scott is coming off of a tremendous three game streak in which he averaged 23 points and 11.7 rebounds, while Askia Booker looks to be locked in on both ends of the floor after struggling in the first half against the Beavers.
Regardless of Oregon’s hot streak, its seed, or its past success against the Buffs, Colorado is not a team worth overlooking.
As was the case the first time around, Booker is the “do-everything” man for Colorado. Booker takes 36.3 percent of the team’s shots, contributes to 31.9 percent of Colorado’s possessions and averages 17.2 points per game.
Booker is experienced and crafty. After struggling early against the Pac-12’s premier perimeter defender Gary Payton II, the senior found a way to put up 20 points despite shooting just 4-13 from the field.
Scott seems to be playing back at his usual high level as well. Scott is one of the nation’s premier offensive players in terms of efficiency with a nationally ranked turnover rate, lending to his solid averages of 13.8 points and 7.8 rebounds per game.
Behind those two stars is Xavier Johnson. Johnson (10.6 ppg, 5.8 rpg) is a versatile wing that fits the saying “jack of all trades, master of none.” At 6-7, 230 pounds, Johnson can work down low, or hit jump shots over sagging defenders.
Oregon and Colorado play mirror-image offenses. While Oregon tends to play from the perimeter, Colorado slashes to the paint and cashes in on second chance points and free throws. As a result, Oregon has kept its turnovers and blocked shots to a minimum, while Colorado is ninth in the conference in blocked shot rate and last in turnovers committed.
On the other end of the court, Oregon and Colorado are relatively similar defensive teams.
Colorado has a slight edge in effective field goal percentage against, turnover rate and rebounding, but Oregon has significant advantages in peripheral stats like attempts per field goals made against and free throw rate.
Colorado’s biggest advantage over Oregon is its size. With an average height of 77.8 inches, the Buffaloes are ranked No. 31 in the country in terms of size, while Oregon is No. 228 nationally at 76.3 inches on average.
Jordan Bell will be the key to stopping Colorado. Bell only scored six points against the Buffs the first time out, but recorded three blocks and was a major factor in defending Scott down low. As long as Bell stays active and involved, Oregon’s defense should hold against the Buffs.
If the Ducks can get out to a good start from the field and contain Booker, Oregon should win. But considering the intensity Booker and Scott showcased to close out their first round matchup, this game will probably come down to the wire.
Follow Josh Schlichter on Twitter @joshschlichter
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