**Editor’s Note: Each week during football season, we feature an essay from the opponent’s student newspaper on why Oregon will lose. This week’s edition is from Jared Funk-Breay, a sports editor at The CU Independent.**
In early September, the thought of Colorado beating Oregon this Saturday was ludicrous. The Buffaloes had lost an ugly game at Hawaii and the Ducks were ranked No. 7 in the country – not to mention, last year Oregon beat CU 44-10 in Eugene.
But since then, the teams have headed in opposite directions. CU has rattled off three victories in a row, including an emotional overtime win over in-state rival Colorado State. UO came close beating No. 2 Michigan State, and not much needs to be said after Utah’s 62-20 beat down of the Ducks.
The questions that will be answered this Saturday are how far has Oregon fallen, and how much has Colorado improved?
It may turn out that last Saturday’s blowout was an anomaly — you never know — but it’s difficult for the Buffaloes to look at the Utah game and not gain confidence.
So far this year, the Oregon’s defense has been soft. It gave up 42 points to FCS opponent Eastern Washington and hasn’t held anyone to less than 28. Utah quarterback Travis Wilson hadn’t thrown a touchdown all year until he threw four against the Ducks.
Furthermore, the Colorado offense is much more balanced than in years past, with a solid rushing and passing attack. Surprisingly, after quarterback Sefo Liufau’s record-breaking season last year, the Buffs have relied more on the run game. CU has averaged 272 yards rushing in its first four games and has three different rushers with more than 200 yards this season—Michael Adkins, Christian Powell and Phillip Lindsay.
The passing is still nothing to scoff at. Liufau is hitting 59 percent of his passes and has thrown only one interception—a vast improvement from his 15 picks last year. Senior wide receiver Nelson Spruce still has some of the best hands in the country, and sophomore Shay Fields adds a speedy deep threat at Liufau’s disposal.
Defensively, the Buffs are still far from perfect, but new defensive coordinator Jim Leavitt has created a more aggressive 3-4 scheme. CU has already forced more turnovers than it did last year. If Colorado is going to pull off an upset, it’s going to have to make some impact plays on defense, and the Ducks have proven they are more than susceptible to that.
In close games, as this one has a good chance of being, it often comes down to which team has the better quarterback play. Whether it’s Vernon Adams Jr. or Jeff Lockie for Oregon on Saturday, neither has looked comfortable in the offense. Liufau has played in six one-possession games in his past last twelve dating back to last year. The team hadn’t won any of these until Colorado State, which felt like a break through for the Buffs. The bottom line is Adams’ and Lockie’s experience pales in comparison to Liufau’s.
Colorado fans are more excited for this game than anything in a long time. Folsom Field should be packed and loud once the 8 p.m. kickoff comes around, with fans striping the stadium in silver and black sections. Home field advantage should make a huge difference. The Buffs want nothing else but to prove to their national ESPN audience they have finally arrived as a force in the college football landscape. Come Saturday I think the Buffs will take another step forward, while the Ducks take another one back.
Contact CU Independent Co-Head Sports Editor Jared Funk-Breay at jared.funkbreay@colorado.edu and follow him on twitter @jaredfunkbreay.