Should Oregon baseball fail to advance to a Super Regional in 2016, its season would be considered a disappointment, and manager George Horton, who has yet to reach a College World Series in seven seasons at Oregon, could find himself coaching for his job in 2017.
Horton was a sexy hire when the Ducks appointed him to take over their resurrected program in 2007. As the head coach of Cal State Fullerton (CSUF) for 10 years, Horton accumulated a 490-212-1 record and made six College World Series appearances. He was named National Coach of the Year twice and won a national title in 2004.
Since joining Oregon, Horton has amassed a respectable 225-147-1 record and guided the team to Regional tournaments five times. His contract was renewed after the Ducks went 46-19 and hosted a Super Regional in 2012, but the Ducks have failed to qualify for a Super Regional since that landmark season. They finished the 2015 season 38-25 after sneaking into and quickly exiting the Regional tournament. In 2014 and 2015, they finished last among Pac-12 teams in hits, runs, walks, stolen bases and extra-base hits per game.
Horton’s current contract guarantees him $500,000 per year, with the possibility of roughly $300,000 more in possible incentives. But the contract expires in 2017, and with the program’s recent regression, Oregon will have to consider a switch at head coach if the Ducks again don’t reach their potential. Horton’s sense of urgency to make a deep postseason run is greater now than ever.
Oregon boasts one of the most formidable starting rotations in college baseball in 2016, a trio of tall, hard-throwing left-handers whose performance will likely correlate with the team’s success. Redshirt sophomore Matt Krook will make his long-anticipated return from the ulnar collateral ligament injury he suffered mid-start in 2014. Redshirt junior Cole Irvin will try to return to his freshman form after struggling in his return from Tommy John surgery last year, and sophomore David Peterson will try to build off his rookie campaign, in which he set the program record for strikeouts by a freshman with 81 in 82.0 innings.
Former pitching coach Dean Stiles, however, just left the Ducks to accept the same position at Florida International, even though his son Cooper Stiles is a pitcher for Oregon. The Ducks filled the vacancy with administrative assistant Mitch Karraker, a former Oregon catcher and the brother of senior pitcher Jack Karraker. A down year for this pitching staff would represent a colossal waste of talent.
Oregon’s biggest concern entering the 2016 season is its offensive firepower. It lost its two best hitters, Mitchell Tolman and Scott Heineman, to the Pittsburgh Pirates and Texas Rangers in the 2015 MLB Draft, as well as its biggest home-run threat, Shaun Chase, to graduation. Outfielders Phil Craig-St. Louis and Jakob Goldfarb will try to fill those voids, although neither hit above .300 or slugged above .385 last season—in fact, no returning player did. Freshmen standouts Matt Kroon and Travis Moniot could end up shouldering a large workload on offense.
Redshirt sophomore outfielder A.J. Balta and redshirt senior outfielder Steven Packard are expected to return to action after both missing the 2015 season due to injuries. Balta was named a Louisville Slugger Freshman All-American after hitting .242 with three home runs, 12 doubles and 29 RBI in 2014. Packard played in 38 games in 2014, starting 11 at designated hitter and hitting .290, including .440 in the last 11 games he played.
Oregon was ranked 14th in a preseason poll by D1Baseball, behind Oregon State (5th), California (9th), UCLA (11th) and Southern California (12th). But the Ducks’ expectations are set much higher than fifth place in the Pac-12, as it could be a long time before their bullpen arms are better than they are now. Whether Horton can maximize the potential of his talented rotation and generate production from a lackluster group of hitters remains to be seen.