**Editor’s Note: Each week during football season, we feature an essay from the opponent’s student newspaper on why Oregon will lose. With the Ducks’ matched up against Duke in the Sweet 16, it seemed like the perfect opportunity to hear an opponent’s take during the basketball season. This edition is from Ryan Hoerger, a sports editor at the Duke Chronicle.**
The last time the Blue Devils came to Anaheim for the Sweet 16 (in 2011, also as the defending national champions), things did not go so well—Duke returned to Durham, North Carolina after a 93-77 defeat at the hands of Derrick Williams and Arizona.
As the first-ever NCAA tournament champion Ducks and most recent tournament champion Blue Devils get set to do battle Thursday night, here are three keys to a Duke victory.
— Ever since senior captain Amile Jefferson went down with a fractured right foot in mid-December, one of Duke’s primary challenges has been staying competitive on the glass. In their March 5 loss to North Carolina, the Blue Devils surrendered 64 rebounds, giving the Tar Heels second, third and fourth-chance opportunities that often ended in points. Oregon’s athleticism could pose another stiff challenge in the rebounding department, despite the Ducks only outrebound Duke by about 0.1 rebounds per game. For the Blue Devils to move on to the Elite Eight, they are going to have to keep the margin respectable on the glass, which all but requires another monster game from Marshall Plumlee in the post. If the Warsaw, Ind., native can hold his own against the rangy Chris Boucher and avoid the foul trouble that has plagued him in recent games—broken nose and all—Duke should stay in the game.
Yesterday’s win vs. Yale was a tale of two halves for the Blue Devils (from @mercash22): https://t.co/pYdRViytA2 pic.twitter.com/x3HMYn0R9W
— Duke Basketball (@dukebasketball) March 20, 2016
— The most appealing matchup, though, will center around versatile swingmen Dillon Brooks and Brandon Ingram. Both can stretch the floor and drive effectively to the lane, but Brooks seems more physically built between the two, as Duke’s ACC Freshman of the Year is still filling into his lanky 6-foot-9 frame. Ingram essentially became Duke’s “power forward” with Jefferson sidelined, even though he spends most of his time out on the perimeter and knocks down more than two 3-pointers per game. Against Brooks, though, he has to do a good job of keeping the sophomore out of the lane, or else Brooks could put Ingram and/or Plumlee into serious foul trouble, and a hot night from Oregon’s star could turn into a Derrick Williams-like performance to bounce Duke from the Sweet 16. Last year’s Duke team rallied around the phrase “Eight is Enough” to win a national championship with just eight eligible scholarship players, but this year’s squad is even thinner—expect Ingram and Plumlee to each log more than 35 minutes, but bouts of foul trouble could throw a serious wrench into the Blue Devils’ repeat aspirations.
— Ingram and first-team All-ACC performer Grayson Allen have carried the Duke offense all year long, but Dana Altman and the Ducks will do their best to take away Mike Krzyzewski’s primary weapons.
22 of Grayson Allen’s 29 points came in the first half, incl. buckets on 4 straight trips: https://t.co/8z0SW6jpdz pic.twitter.com/4Nw76vOhu5
— Duke Basketball (@dukebasketball) March 20, 2016
The rest of the Blue Devils have taken turns stepping up this season, but against an Oregon team that can heat up in a hurry from the perimeter, it may be best to fight fire with fire. Freshman Luke Kennard could well be the X-factor in Thursday’sgame—the lefty bypassed LeBron James in the Ohio high-school basketball career scoring record books but has been a streaky shooter all season. Kennard hit three 3-pointers on his way to 13 points in Duke’s second-round win against Yale and has shown up in some of the Blue Devils’ biggest games this season. Allen and Ingram get into the paint seemingly at will, and they’re very willing to kick the ball back out to open perimeter shooters, so if Kennard can knock down a couple of early treys, the Blue Devils may burn down the nets on their way to an Elite Eight matchup with either Oklahoma or Texas A&M.