The presidential election, Israel-Palestine and reproductive rights will be key issues in the upcoming Minnesota state primary election.

The primary election is on Aug. 13, but early voting began on June 28, according to the Office of the Minnesota Secretary of State. 

Despite early voting having begun by the time President Joe Biden dropped out of the race, Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign may affect voting turnout in August by generating excitement throughout the Democratic Party, said David Schultz, a political science professor at Hamline University.

“I could see it affecting the primary,” Schultz said. “But we don’t really know how to calculate that.”

After Biden announced he was no longer running for a second term, the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party (DFL) endorsed Harris.

“Our party must now rally behind Vice President Harris and emerge as a united front ready to defeat Donald Trump in November,” DFL Chair Ken Martin said in a statement. 

Schultz said the Democratic race for the 5th Congressional District seat in Minneapolis between incumbent Rep. Ilhan Omar and Don Samuels may be impacted the most by the recent announcement of Harris’ campaign.

“In Minneapolis, we may actually get a fairly high turnout because we’ve got a primary again between Omar and Samuels,” Schultz said. “I do think Harris potentially motivates more progressives to come out compared to Biden, and I think that helps (Omar).”

The ongoing war in Gaza is another key factor in the Omar versus Samuels race, Schultz added. While it could potentially be a dividing issue for the Democratic primary, Omar’s criticisms of Israel may be an advantage in her district. 

“Given where a lot of college students are and given the composition of her district, criticizing Israel may help her in the Democratic primary compared to where Samuels is,” Schultz said. 

Omar has been critical of Israel’s invasion of Gaza since October 2023 and appeared at a student-led pro-Palestine protest in April. Samuels, who is in favor of U.S. support of Israel, has been critical of Omar’s stance.

“Congresswoman Omar is simplifying this thing to concepts like their pro-genocide and anti-genocide students, and unable to understand the complex forces involved in this and the need for discipline, and a balanced response that does not alienate any side of the debate,” Samuels said in a Q&A with the Minnesota Daily.

Additionally, Schultz said Omar is running a more competitive campaign than she did against Samuels two years ago when Omar narrowly won the Democratic primary by 50.3% of the vote compared to Samuels’ 48.2%. 

“This time, she is running a much better campaign and talking about issues such as reproductive rights,” Schultz said. “I tend to think that Omar this time is not going to be caught surprised.”

While reproductive rights are protected in Minnesota since Gov. Tim Walz signed legislation guaranteeing Minnesotans the fundamental right to an abortion in January 2023, it is still a major issue in the primary, especially for Democrats, Schultz said.

“Given the fact Minnesota has become a sort of pro-choice island in the midwest, I think to some democrats preserving that is important,” Schultz said.

Other issues such as the economy, LGBTQ+ rights and crime will also influence voters for many of these campaigns, Schultz said.

In Samuel’s previous effort to oust Omar, he said she was soft on crime, criticizing her support for a ballot initiative that would have fundamentally changed the Minneapolis Police Department. 

For Republicans, the July 13 assassination attempt on Donald Trump motivated many in the Republican Party nationally, Schultz said. However, he added it is hard to know how that will affect voting in Minnesota in the primary.

“The Republicans (in Minnesota) have not been as motivated as they could have because it’s a state that appears to be so overwhelmingly democratic,” Schultz said. “I think (Trump) coming and appearing in St. Cloud helps motivate the base, although the crowd up in St. Cloud is already overwhelmingly Republican.”

With voters in urban areas more likely to vote Democratic and rural areas more likely to vote Republican, Schultz said the real “battleground” in Minnesota is in the suburbs. 

“Early voting (for the general election) starts the last week of September, so we’re looking at 30 days, 45 days from the end of the primary,” Schultz said. “What happens by primary day might actually be a pretty good sign of giving us some clues for general election voting.”